Welcome to the weekly world briefing, a midweek feature that helps you stay up to date on issues worldwide and how they affect travelers. Is there something you think should be added to the next briefing? Tell us on Twitter.
In Greenland…
Ice is melting at an “unprecedented” rate, according to a study in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. And it’s not just the glaciers. Ice is melting inland from coastal Greenland, shrinking the island’s surface mass. The island may have reached a “tipping point” at which increased melting is inevitable. Another study released this month found similar accelerated melting in Antarctica. Together the studies suggest that the ocean is warming faster than we anticipated. Perhaps we’re underestimating climate change altogether.
As we reported last week, Greenland’s tourism industry is responding by trading sled dog tours for boat tours and encouraging people to see the glaciers before they disappear. The country’s official tourism website has a full page titled “The Guide to Climate Change in Greenland” where travelers can learn how a warming planet is affecting the icy island.
Our Take: Sea level rise is one of the more noticeable effects of climate change, and it’s happening fast. As water heats, it expands. Melting ice sheets only add to the problem. Warmer water means a higher propensity for devastating natural disasters such as 2018’s Hurricane Florence. Coastal areas and islands around the world are in danger of complete destruction. We must take action to prevent the worst effects of climate change now. If you travel frequently, condense your trips to reduce your air travel. Vote and give money to candidates who will take action on climate change–it affects everyone and should not be a partisan issue. Follow this advice, which includes going carless and eating a plant-based diet. Take time to learn about how climate change is affecting people wherever you travel.
In Venezuela and Zimbabwe…
Protests erupted this week in two countries on two separate continents connected by their alarming levels of hyperinflation. In Caracas, Venezuela protesters clashed with police on Monday over rising prices and stagnant wages. A march against President Nicolás Maduro is scheduled for Wednesday. Venezuela is not known for well-organized opposition, which makes the planned march surprising. “These protests are remarkable. The fact that people are coming out to protest across class lines reveals one thing: just how widespread the level of utter disgust with Maduro is in Venezuela today,” said Geoff Ramsey, the assistant director for Venezuela at the Washington Office in Latin America.
In Zimbabwe unrest last week led to eight deaths. Now Zimbabwe’s Human Rights Commision is accusing the military of using “systematic torture to quell the protests. More than 600 people have been detained, many for no apparent reason. The protests were in response to an abrupt increase in fuel prices, which added to the economic woes of a struggling population.
As Venezuela continues to print more bolivars, its inflation rate is expected to hit 10 million percent this year. Zimbabwe’s inflation rate recently jumped to 42 percent, far below its 2008 peak of 500 billion percent, but still an unsustainable number.
Hyperinflation is a phenomenon that occurs when an increase in money supply is not supported by GDP growth. In times of recession, people are strapped for cash. The government may respond by printing more money. Unfortunately, if the country’s GDP is stagnant or shrinking, that new money will be worth less and less, causing hyperinflation. A decade ago, Zimbabwe escaped the worst of its hyperinflation by allowing the use of foreign currency. (Then the country entered a troubling period of deflation, but that’s another story.) Venezuela is unlikely to allow the use of foreign currency, especially the worldwide default US dollar, for political reasons. A currency board seems unlikely as well, leaving the country with few options for escaping its economic nightmare.
Our Take: Travel to Venezuela is not advised due to conflict, unrest, poor health infrastructure, and hyperinflation. Violent crime is common, specifically homicide, robbery, and carjacking, and security forces have arbitrarily held U.S. citizens for long periods of time in the past. If you are injured or get sick in Venezuela, the health infrastructure might not be adequate to treat you. You will also be affected by the issue of hyperinflation–there is very little cash in the country and you will lose large percentages (often up to 60%) in the exchange of USD. If you do not have a debit card capable of withdrawing Venezuelan Bolivar, the trip will be much more expensive than you’re probably expecting. You are also required to book all hotels ahead of time (this is not always enforced, but often enough you probably want to play it safe), so you will be paying the USD rate online instead of the much lower BsF rate you would pay on arrival. If you do travel to Venezuela, do not travel at night, see a travel doctor before you go and bring any potentially needed medications, avoid demonstrations, and never take unmarked taxis. Zimbabwe is another story. While the street protests can be violent, the country is generally safe. As with many places, avoid openly displaying cash and traveling alone at night. Stay away from any political demonstrations you come across, and leave valuables in your hotel safe. (In any country, we always recommend carrying a copy of your passport and visa, and leaving the originals in a safe). You will need the yellow fever vaccine and at least two blank pages and six months of validity on your passport to obtain a visa on arrival.
In the United Kingdom…
Parliament resoundingly rejected Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan last week by a margin of 432-202. Over one hundred conservatives joined opposition and allied parties to defeat the measure. Now the future of Brexit is uncertain. Some are suggesting that the UK may stay in the European Union past the March 29th deadline to avoid a “no deal” Brexit. Though May’s Brexit plan failed, she survived a no-confidence vote the following day. Thus, she avoided resigning and triggering a new general election. Still, the situation in the UK is looking precarious, causing several businesses to move their headquarters out of London.
The British people voted to leave the EU in a June 2016 referendum, but the process of separating two large economies is daunting. In particular, no side can devise a solution to avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Under May’s failed proposal, the UK would stay in a customs union with the EU for a 21-month transition period while negotiating the issue of a border between Ireland. If no deal is reached, Northern Ireland would remain in the customs union indefinitely while the rest of the UK would exit. Conservatives dislike this plan because it undermines the purpose of Brexit. Remaining in a customs union with the EU would mean that the UK would still be bound to EU rules without having a say in how those rules are made. The Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, a key conservative ally, also dislikes the proposal because of its potential to split Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK economically.
If the March 29th deadline arrives without a deal or an extension, the UK will leave the EU with no deal. In this scenario, EU officials insist on a hard border in Ireland. The agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing sectors would all be hit hard by this solution. A hard border would be a drag for the thousands of people cross who the Ireland-Northern Ireland border daily. It would also slow down traffic for regular travelers. A physical border could even be a target of terrorist attacks given the deadly history between the two countries.
Our Take: Though the future of Brexit is uncertain, the immediate effect on travelers is minimal. Once the UK leaves the EU, travelers will stop enjoying the luxury of moving freely between the UK ad the EU. The impending exit will have a much larger effect on the UK’s tourism industry than the average traveler. You will need to go through customs when traveling between the UK and the EU, but on the bright side, you will get another stamp on your passport.
In China…
The Belt and Road project billed as a 21st Century Silk Road is continuing, but Chinese officials are being quieter about its implementation after several high-profile missteps. At the World Economic Forum this week, Chinese officials have barely touched on the massive infrastructure project that is set to connect at least half of the world’s population and a quarter of its GDP.
The Belt and Road Initiative was introduced in 2013 as a plan to connect southeast Asia with Europe and Africa through a network of belts (mostly railroads) and roads (maritime routes). It is the world’s most ambitious plan to connect large amounts of people and goods. And it’s ever-expanding. 125 countries are now participating, from Brazil to Sri Lanka. The plan is expected to cost between $1.2-1.3 trillion.
But a slowing Chinese economy is affecting investments abroad. The total value of overseas investment and construction dropped by $100.7 billion between 2017 and 2018. Declining investment in the United States represented the largest share of the drop, but Belt and Road dollars dipped as well.
In addition, many developing nations are beginning to rethink their commitment to China’s vision. Countries like Sri Lanka and Pakistan are struggling to repay their debts. Last summer, the newly-elected Malaysian government cancelled two contracts with China over mounting debt the country could not pay. Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said, “We do not want a situation where there is a new version of colonialism happening because poor countries are unable to compete with rich countries.”
Nonetheless, some countries are welcoming the investment. In Brazil, China’s initiative is helping to efficiently move crops from the country’s interior to the coast, where they can be traded. A better method of transporting soy and other crops is crucial to Brazil’s economy, but environmentalists worry the new railroads could pave way for further deforestation.
Since its inception, the Belt and Road Initiative has received its fair share of backlash and praise. While some argue that the program is just a ploy to keep developing nations owing China, others argue that an infrastructure project of this size is chaotic by nature, but China is acting in good faith. Regardless, the program will forever change trade and business once completed.
Our Take: The Belt and Road Initiative is already connecting more people than ever before. For example, there is now a direct rail line between the UK and China. However, we must consider if the human cost is worth it. With more and more countries falling into debt traps, it is important to consider who these roads are helping and who they are hurting. If completed ethically, a broader network of roads throughout the world would be incredibly useful. Though the Belt and Road Initiative is primarily focused on trade, it does include some high-speed rails that would allow people to quickly travel between metropolitan centers. Those rails could be an improvement for workers and travelers alike.
In the United States…
The longest-ever government shutdown is in its fifth week. For the first time since the shutdown began, the Senate will take action this Friday. Democrats and Republicans will present competing bills to reopen the government, but neither is expected to garner the 60 votes needed to pass. The Democratic bill proposes funding the government through Feb. 8 without a border wall, while the Republican bill includes President Trump’s proposal to send $5.7 billion on a wall. With the sides so opposed, Friday will likely pass without action, meaning 800,000 federal workers will miss a second paycheck. However, pressure is growing on both sides, and the votes could be a hint toward compromise in the near future.
Meanwhile, the Supreme Court did not take action on a plan from the Trump administration to end a program that helps undocumented immigrants. The Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, better known as DACA, protects about 700,000 young undocumented immigrants from deportation and allows them to obtain renewable two-year work permits. When in 2012, then President Obama called it “a temporary stopgap measure that lets us focus our resources wisely while giving a degree of relief and hope to talented, driven, patriotic young people.” President Trump says the program is unconstitutional and tried to end it in 2017. The Supreme Court will likely not hear the case in its current term, meaning even if they do agree to hear it next term, a decision will not be made until 2020, after the general election. The court’s inaction weakens Mr. Trump’s stance in negotiations.
At the same time, the State Department cancelled an international conference focused on border security due to the shutdown, somewhat ironic as shutdown talks have revolved around security at the U.S.-Mexico border. The 16th International Export Control and Border Security Conference was to be held in Edinburgh, Scotland in February to discuss transfer of weapons of mass destruction and other weapons across borders. A letter obtained by CNN from Kathryn Insley, director of the Office of Export Control Cooperation, says the event has been postponed “due to uncertainty associated with the continuing partial U.S. federal government shutdown.”
While the shutdown is primarily affecting the federal workers who are now going without a paycheck, as well as those who rely on food assistance, farmers, and many other aspects of American life, it is also affecting tourism. Airports are struggling as T.S.A workers fail to report for work, many citing financial troubles. The average T.S.A. security screener makes less than $40,000 per year, and they have not been paid in more than three weeks and are about to miss another paycheck. “Every day that goes by puts us a day or an hour closer to a potential bad thing happening,” John S. Pistole, a former administrator of the T.S.A. told the New York Times. Airlines are losing millions of dollars, passengers are nervous about flying, and security lines are getting longer.
National parks–a big tourist draw–are also suffering. “Overflowing trash cans, illegal off-road driving, poaching of animals and plants, and theft of artifacts, as well as safety risks for park visitors,” are all concerns, according to PRI. Some are suggesting the parks be closed to avoid further damage. “The campgrounds are not getting service, the restrooms aren’t getting cleaned; people will get lost on the trails, dogs are going off leash in areas where that’s not allowed, which impacts wildlife,” says former Secretary of the Interior Sally Jewell.
On a more positive note, in some cities, museums and businesses are stepping in to help federal workers. There are more than 45,000 federal workers in Chicago, and many of that city’s museums are offering free admission to furloughed workers, while some local businesses offer discounts or things like free haircuts, free workouts, or a free oil change. San Francisco, New York City, Detroit, and many more cities are doing the same.
Our take: if you’re traveling by air during the government shutdown, give yourself some extra time at the airport, and be nice to the T.S.A. agents working long security lines. If you visit national parks or public lands, be respectful, pick up after yourself, and be safe–consider saving more advanced hiking trails or areas known for dangerous wildlife for a visit when parks are staffed. If you’re a federal worker, look into whether there are discounts on services or activities in your community. As always, one of the most effective things U.S. citizens can do is get in touch with their representatives.
