Welcome to the weekly world briefing, a midweek feature that helps you stay up to date on issues worldwide and how they affect travelers. Is there something you think should be added to the next briefing? Tell us on Twitter.
In Hanoi, Vietnam…
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump will meet Wednesday night in the second meeting between the two leaders of nuclear-armed nations. The June 2018 meeting in Singapore was the first such meeting between a sitting U.S. president and a North Korean leader. Nuclear disarmament and the lifting of international sanctions against North Korea will be the primary discussion points.
In June, Kim and Trump agreed to establish “new relations” for peace and prosperity, build a “lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula,” work “towards denuclearization,” and recover the remains of soldiers killed during the Korean War. Though the meeting itself was historic, little progress has been made since. Now there is rising pressure on both sides to produce real results. Trump has attempted to tamp down expectations, highlighting that North Korea has not tested any nuclear weapons in months and reiterating that there is no rush to denuclearize. In an interview with Fox News, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said of denuclearization, “it may not happen, but I hope that it will.” So far, North Korea has shown no willingness to completely dismantle its nuclear program.
Many experts see the testing moratorium as a significant feat. “If you can’t test, you can’t make progress,” said Siegfried Hecker, former head of Los Alamos National Laboratory. But if a final deal does not include denuclearization, Trump will have to explain to the public how this deal is different than the Obama-brokered Iran deal, which Trump called “the worst deal ever,” and has since ended. Though Iran is the most recent example of an international nuclear treaty, this situation is more complex. Most notably, North Korea already has an arsenal of nuclear weapons whereas Iran only only had the capability to create one.
As North Korean and American leaders arrived in Vietnam over the last couple days, the symbolic importance of the meeting’s location was apparent. Vietnam has become a fast-growing economy while maintaining communist rule. By opening up its economy, Vietnam has quickly risen its GDP per capita without giving up authoritarianism. Relations between the U.S. and Vietnam have also warmed considerably since the war ended in 1975. Last year Pompeo addressed North Korea in Vietnam saying, “This miracle could be your miracle.” Though there are differences that would prevent North Korea from emulating Vietnam exactly (for one, Vietnam has almost four times as many people), the intention of using Vietnam as an example is clear.
Our Take: Don’t get too excited. There’s a long way to go and it’s unclear how willing North Korea is to dismantle its nuclear program. Do keep watching. An end to the Korean War would be significant, especially to those in South Korea, but it wouldn’t mean immediate peace. This should be a given, but travel to North Korea is not recommended. Not only because it’s not safe, but because in doing so you’re supporting a dictatorship with one of the worst human rights records in the world. We get asked often why travel to North Korea is different than Cuba, or Egypt, or other countries with authoritarian governments. The short answer is that in many countries tourism is vital to the economy and lives of everyday people, and you can still find ways to support local businesses and citizens with your dollars. In North Korea and a few other places, that is not the case. The longer answer is coming in an article soon–stay tuned.
In Washington, D.C…
Top trade officials from the U.S. and China met last week in an effort to end the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Though no deal was reached, Trump opted not to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods as was originally planned. Instead, he said he and Chinese President Xi Jinping may meet at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in March to further discuss the deal. China has agreed to some terms, including buying more American agricultural goods and preventing currency manipulation, but several disagreements remain.
Some U.S. demands would require a fundamental shift in China’s economic structure. For example, the U.S. would like China to stop subsidizing companies, which gives them a competitive advantage. Others deal with technological advances in trade. Chinese companies have a reputation of committing cybertheft. The U.S. is demanding China do more to crack down on that.
The trade war has harmed the economies of both countries. In the United States, the stock market has experienced plenty of volatility, and farmers have been hurt by China’s retaliatory tariffs. Still, Trump is receiving pressure from Democrats and Republicans alike to stay tough on China until a deal can be signed.
Meanwhile, Xi recently called hundreds of officials to Beijing to speak about various potential risks to China and the Communist Party. In addition to the U.S.-imposed tariffs, China is experiencing slowing growth, international pushback against Chinese investments, and condemnation for its treatment of Uighur Muslims. Several countries, including Malaysia and Pakistan, have reconsidered their participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. This week, Turkey and the United Kingdom called on the Human Rights Council to investigate China’s treatment of Uighur Muslims in Xinxiang, a sparsely-populated region of Western China. China is accused of disguising internment camps as re-education and training facilities.
In Algeria…
Protests have entered their fifth day following President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s announcement that he will seek reelection in April. Bouteflika, who is wheelchair-bound, has rarely been seen in public since his 2013 stroke. It is rumored that his brother Saïd is running the country from the background.
“People do not want Bouteflika,” chanted demonstrators throughout the country, including in the capital city of Algiers, where protests are prohibited. Tear gas was used to disperse protesters on Monday, but the protests continued the next day when students joined the rallies against the 81 year-old leader.
Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia addressed the protests by noting that the demonstrators could share their discontent by voting. “Everyone has the right to support their candidate and be against any other candidate, the ballot box will decide in a peaceful and civilized way,” he said. But in an interview with Al Jazeera, opposition leader Sofiane Dijilali dismissed that idea. “We would have been happy to take part in a free and fair election. The problem is that this is not the case in Algeria.” He continued, “Elections are an elaborate accessory because the results are predetermined.”
Beleaguered from a decade-long civil war that ended in 2002, Algeria avoided violence during the Arab Spring in 2010. It’s economy remained strong throughout much of the 2010’s, but the recent drop in oil prices has affected its citizens. More than a quarter of Algerians under the age of 30 are unemployed. This week’s protests are a warning sign to Bouteflika’s government than Algerians are losing patience with the status quo.
Our Take: The Arab Spring brought new governments across the Middle East and North Africa, and tourism in North Africa saw large increases in the years following. Algeria was considered one of the safer countries to visit, along with Morocco and Tunisia. In 2017, Algeria’s Ministry of Tourism predicted travel would double by 2027. Tourism is important to countries’ GDPs across North Africa, and for the most part it continues to grow. Tunisia saw a record year for tourism in 2018 and Morocco’s tourism continues to increase. In Egypt, tourism is just starting to bounce back. Algeria has remained fairly safe and tourism has increased, but protests could halt growth. It’s always a good idea to stay away from large protests in countries you’re unfamiliar with, but overall it’s still safe to travel to most of Algeria. Visit Algiers and the north part of the country, but stay away from the borders with Tunisia, Libya, Niger, Mauritania, and Mali due to terrorist activity (essentially all eastern and southern borders).
Across the United States…
Travelers across the United States experienced flight delays last weekend thanks to extreme winds. Eighty-nine flights were delayed and 70 cancelled in LaGuardia, where wind gusts hit 62 miles per hour. At Newark Liberty International Airport flights were delayed three hours and 36 minutes on average, and Philadelphia International Airport had more than 140 cancelled or delayed flights. Flights were also cancelled or delayed at Chicago O’Hare, in Gary, Indiana, and at Cleveland Hopkins International Airport. Flights in San Francisco and Reno-Tahoe were also delayed due to an “atmospheric river” storm system.
Strong winds not only cause bumpy flights and heighten anxiety in those afraid of flying, but they can also be problematic for smooth landings. Merriam-Webster’s defines “turbulence” as “the quality or state of being turbulent: such as a great commotion or agitation; irregular atmospheric motion especially when characterized by up and down currents; departure in a fluid from a smooth flow.”
In flight, turbulence is usually caused by mountains, jet streams, or storms. And that last one is where we’re going to focus. From National Geographic: Though it’s easy to understand turbulence created by thunderstorms, a relatively new discovery by researchers is that storms can generate bumpy conditions in faraway skies. The rapid growth of storm clouds pushes air away, generating waves in the atmosphere that can break up into turbulence hundreds to even thousands of miles away, says Robert Sharman, a turbulence researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
Turbulence can be hard to predict, though the technology is improving. Travelers can rest assured that despite how scary it often feels, every part of an airplane has been tested to withstand incredibly strong winds, much stronger that what it would encounter in the air. That doesn’t mean turbulence isn’t costly, though. “Flight path and altitude changes to avoid turbulence is estimated to cost U.S. airlines as much as $100 million a year, and burn an additional 160 million gallons of fuel per year,” according to National Geographic.
Here’s the bad news: discomfort and costs could rise as the climate continues to change. By 2050, passengers could see a doubling in turbulence over the North Atlantic Ocean because of shifts in the jet stream as a result of global warming. That happens to be one of the busiest flight corridors in the world. Not only will there be more turbulence, but it could also be stronger, according to a study published in Nature Climate Change. “So your drink might spill over, you might lift out of your seat a little bit—certainly the pilot would have the seatbelt sign on,” said Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom and lead author of the study.
Climate models look at trends over large areas, so it’s not clear how accurate the model can be at predicting exact results. Still, as wind storms increase and jet streams shift, you can expect it to change your flight experience in some way–whether that means a bumpier flights or more delays.
Our take: Don’t be afraid of flying. It’s still one of the safest forms of transportation and turbulence isn’t changing that. Do recognize that climate change is real, and it is pressing. As always, be as sustainable as you can in your everyday life, and vote and give money to candidates who will take action. Climate change affects everyone and should not be a partisan issue. Take time to learn about how climate change is affecting people wherever you travel.
